●Monitor
PM layer · Polymarket
/monitorWhat it answers
The main Polymarket events whose question lands on an identifiable country, projected onto it: implied probability of the leading outcome, 24h volume, and recent volatility — straight onto the geography.
When to open it
- To weigh a map of conflicts or elections against market pricing at a glance — who thinks things are getting worse where, and at what price.
- When a geopolitical narrative gathers weight in the press: do the markets believe it yet, or not?
- To place a mover flagged in the PM panel or in Markets: where it sits, and next to what else.
Anatomy
Switch on PM in the layer grid at top right. Each event shows up as a donut ring centered on the country concerned: a pale purple base, a brighter purple arc whose length reflects the leading market's YES probability. The Polymarket color signs the semantics on sight — this is market pricing, not operational tape.
Click one and an info card opens in the top-right corner.
How to read it
The ring on the map
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Base ring | Pale purple, full circle — the scale it reads against (0 to 100%). |
| Filled arc | Brighter purple, its length proportional to the YES probability of the event's leading market. All the way round = 100%, barely there = highly unlikely. |
| Position | Centered on the centroid of the event's primary country. When an event spans several countries, the primary one carries the ring. |
The info card (click a ring)
| Block | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Header | Purple POLYMARKET dot, a domain chip where available (macro, geopolitical, elections, energy, trade, crypto), and the probability {N}% large on the right. |
| Question | The Polymarket question of the leading market. |
| Vol | The market's 24h volume, in USD. |
| Move | Realized 24h volatility, in probability points. Shown only when it is worth showing; turns red above 5pp. |
| Country chips | Up to three flags + names of the countries involved. |
| Card footer | The event's full title. |
Clicking the card opens Markets in a new tab for the detailed read (sparkline, flow, whales, 30-day history).
Controls
| Gesture | Effect |
|---|---|
| PM toggle in the grid at top right | Turns the layer on or off. |
| Click a ring | Opens the info card. With Fly on, the camera recenters on it. If the PM panel is open, it opens that event too. |
| Click empty space or Esc | Closes the card. |
| Click the info card | Opens Markets on that event. |
The layer reloads automatically every 2 minutes.
Cross-check with other Hawkline features
Keep in mind
- One ring per event, not per market. On multi-outcome events (elections and the like), the leading outcome drives the probability shown. Outcome-by-outcome detail sits in the Markets drawer.
- A probability is not the truth. A market at 87% YES says counterparties will pay 87¢ for $1 if YES wins. Liquidity is not information.