Markets
/intel?view=marketsWhat it answers
Every active Polymarket market in one panel: what probability the market puts on each outcome, what is moving, where the whales are and where the flow is piling up. Prediction markets are the planet betting on the future in real time.
When to open it
- To test your read against the market's. You think Powell won't be removed before June? Polymarket prices that probability continuously, in real dollars. If your conviction diverges sharply, either you have an edge or you're missing something.
- To catch a violent repricing. The Movers panel lists markets that have moved more than 3pp over the window you've chosen. A probability going from 12% to 38% in four hours is rarely noise.
- To place a desk thesis against the market. When the desk writes "Polymarket prices X at Y%", this is where you find that market and check it live.
Anatomy
Three zones. At the top, the strip: the Domain activity ribbon on the left (24h volume split by domain), the KPI panel on the right (clickable, to apply lenses). Below, on the left the event grid — one tile per Polymarket event with its outcome bar, KPIs and a sparkline; on the right the Movers rail — a compact list of the markets moving most over the window. Clicking a tile opens a full-height drawer on the right with the 30-day probability chart and the detailed list of the event's markets.
How to read it
The header filters
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Layers icon | Domain selection — All, Macro, Geopolitical, Elections, Energy, Trade, Crypto. Single-select. |
| window — 1H / 4H / 24H / 7D | The window the price delta on tiles and movers is measured over. What "has moved" means depends on this setting. |
| sort — Vol / Δ / OI / N | Grid order: by 24h volume, by Δ (absolute mover over the window), by total open interest, or by entropy N (how spread the probabilities are — useful for finding wide-open events with no favorite). |
| lens — All / Movers / Whales / Volatile | A quick filter on the grid. Movers: events with a market at Δ ≥ 3pp. Whales: events where a whale has signed. Volatile: 24h realized volatility ≥ 2%. |
Domain, window and sort preferences are remembered locally between sessions.
The Domain activity ribbon (top left)
A segmented horizontal bar — one segment per domain, width proportional to its share of 24h volume. On hover, the tooltip gives the volume and the event count. Click to filter the grid on that domain; click All or click again to remove the filter. Dimmed segments are the domains outside the filter.
The KPI panel (top right)
Five cells. Movers, Whales and Volatile are clickable and apply a lens.
| Cell | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Volume 24h | Aggregate volume across every visible event. Subline: the event count. |
| Movers | Number of events with a market at Δ > 3pp over the window. Click = Movers lens. |
| Whales | Number of events with an active whale. Click = Whales lens. |
| Volatile | Number of events with 24h realized volatility ≥ 2%. Click = Volatile lens. |
| Multi-outcome | Number of multi-outcome events (elections, candidate baskets…). A structural indicator, not clickable. |
The event grid
The Events title shows M/N (filtered / total) plus, depending on context, the active domain, the lens, and the sort mode.
Each tile:
| Tile element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Vertical rule on the left | The intensity of the event's top mover — red if Δ ≥ 10pp, orange if ≥ 5pp, blue if ≥ 2pp, transparent below that. |
| Domain chip | Its own color — macro, geopolitical, elections, energy, trade, crypto. |
| Flags | Up to three countries tied to the event, +N beyond that. |
↯ | A volume spike on at least one of the event's markets (24h volume meaningfully above its own average). |
◆ | An active whale on at least one of the event's markets. |
| End counter | Time left before resolution (3d, 2h, and so on). |
| Title | The event's question. |
| Outcome block | On a single-market event: the question and the YES probability, plus a fill bar. On a multi-outcome event: the leading outcome, its probability, and a stacked bar of the top five outcomes — width reflects their relative weight, opacity their probability. |
| Metrics line | VOL 24H (USD volume), OI (USD open interest), Δ <window> (the leading market's delta over the chosen window), MKTS (how many markets are in the event). |
| Sparkline | The leading market's recent price path. |
| TOP MOVE | On multi-outcome events only: the outcome whose probability moved most over the window, with its delta. Click = opens the drawer straight onto that market. |
| Footer | vol N% chips (24h realized volatility, ≥ 1%) and H N.NN (entropy ≥ 0.5 — the higher it is, the more wide-open the event), plus a reminder of the resolution date. |
The Movers rail (right column)
A compact list of the markets moving most, sorted by Δ descending. If an event is open in the drawer, that event's movers rise to the top.
Each line: the domain's colored dot, the market's question, the event title on a subline, a mini-sparkline, the YES probability, the delta over the window (green if up, red if down), a flow label, a ◆ whale symbol where applicable, and 24h volume. Click = opens the drawer on that market.
The drawer (click a tile or a mover)
Opens on the right and takes the right half of the grid. Full screen on a small display.
| Block | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Header | Event title, domain chip, country flags, end date (ends MMM DD), and cumulative 24h volume. |
| Market selector | The event's markets, listed on the right. Sorted by probability descending. Each line: a fill bar colored by its probability, the question, the YES probability, the delta over the window. Click = updates the chart and the stats on the left. |
| Probability chart | 30 days of history on the selected market's YES probability. |
| Stats | Probability (current YES probability), Δ <window> (delta over the chosen window), Δ 7D (weekly delta), Spread (bid-ask gap in pp), Flow (BUY / SELL / BALANCED), Vol Ratio (24h volume versus average — above 1× means activity above normal), Realized Vol (24h realized volatility in %), Open Interest, Volume 24h, Liquidity, Whales (a BUYING, SELLING, MIXED badge, or a dash). |
| Tags | The event's Polymarket tags. |
Controls
| Gesture | Effect |
|---|---|
| Layers icon | Opens the domain selection. Single-select, All to clear. |
| Click window | Recomputes the deltas shown on tiles and movers. |
| Click sort | Reorders the grid. |
| Click lens | Applies the quick filter; click again or hit All to lift it. |
| Click a Domain activity segment | Filters the grid on that domain; click again to remove the filter. |
| Click Movers / Whales / Volatile in the KPI panel | Applies the matching lens. |
| Click a tile | Opens the event's drawer. Clicking the same tile again closes it. |
| Click TOP MOVE on a multi-outcome tile | Opens the drawer straight onto the outcome that is moving. |
| Click a Movers line | Opens the drawer on that specific market. |
| Click a line in the drawer's market list | Switches the chart and stats to that market. |
| Esc | Closes the drawer. |
Cross-check with other Hawkline features
- A violent repricing on a Macro market: Macro to see which print or central bank decision could justify the delta.
- A move on a Geopolitical or Energy market: News for the narrative and the quality of the sources, TDI to check whether the operational tape is moving alongside.
- A desk MARKET thesis listed as covering the subject: Theses gives you the desk's entry and its current verdict.
- An event on a specific currency: FX to see whether the pair is already pricing the outcome or lagging it.
Keep in mind
- A probability is not the truth. A market at 87% YES says counterparties will pay 87¢ for $1 if YES wins. Liquid is not informed; thinly traded markets carry a wide spread and a probability adrift of fair value.
- Whales are a signal, not an oracle. A large account taking a position isn't necessarily informed or rational. A whale — and the market at large — can always be wrong. Don't follow the flow blind.