●Intel
Markets
/intel?view=marketsWhat it answers
What the Polymarket crowd prices on the questions that move markets, and one event read whole: how the crowd splits it, how that moved and what moved it, what the markets it bears on did on the same clock, and everything the desk has said about it.
When to open it
- A briefing draws a market or watches a decision. Every Polymarket exhibit, every decision or deadline on the briefing's Watch, and every leg under Since the brief opens its event here. Hover a decision on the watch for its card first.
- Before a central bank meets. The event shows hold / hike / cut on its own scale, how it moved this week, and links straight to the decision in Macro.
- When a question jumps. What moved it lists the move, the money that came in on it and the headlines that landed around it.
- To test a desk thesis against the crowd. An open position shows on the chart as its entry and the desk's own number, dashed.
Anatomy
A strip across the top: the crowd's last three days on a tape on the left, Decided soon, still open on the right. Below, three columns: the board on the left (every event, filtered by theme and ordered by lens), the open event in the middle, and on the right Moving (the day's largest real moves) and Settled (what resolved in the last three days).
How to read it
The strip
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| The crowd · 72 hours | One lane per theme. Every mark is a question that moved five points or more within six hours, placed where the move landed: pointing up or down with the move, larger the larger it was. Hover for the question and its move; click to open the event on that question. Dashed amber lines: the briefings the desk wrote. Dots under the axis: high-impact releases — hover to name one, click to open it in Macro. Above the tape: events tracked, the day's money, how many moved five points or more, and how many the desk has drawn in the last month or holds a position on. |
| Decided soon, still open | Questions that settle within two weeks while the crowd still prices them between 15% and 85%, soonest first: the deadline, the question and its price. Click to open it. |
The board
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Theme chips | What an event is about — Rates & central banks, Middle East, Russia–Ukraine, China, Energy, Equities, Crypto, then Elections, Trade, World for events no market theme claims. The count is the number of events. |
| Desk / Moving / Ending / Volume | The order. Desk: open positions first, then the events the briefings drew most recently. Moving: the largest 24-hour change on any of the event's questions. Ending: the soonest deadline still ahead. Volume: the day's money. |
| Row | The event's title; its lead question — the one a reader means by "the market on X" — with its price and its 24-hour change in points; its week as a line; its theme, how long until it ends, the day's money; mover when another of its questions moved more; a thesis mark when the desk holds a position; the amber date of the last briefing that drew or watched it. |
The open event
| Block | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Head | Theme, the subjects it bears on, its countries, the title; when it resolves, today's money, open interest, how many questions it holds, and a link to Polymarket. Badges: On the desk (the last briefing that drew or watched it), Open thesis, the convergence zones it belongs to, and Prices — the calendar release it prices, opened in Macro. |
| The question in focus | The lead question, or the one you picked: its price, and where it stood a day, a week and a month ago, with the change in points; its spread. A dash means the price at that time is not known. |
| The read | A few lines built from the numbers: what the crowd prices and how that moved on the week, its largest move in the window, the day's money, how a market on the tape has moved with it (only when the link is measurable — R² shown), the desk's open position and its last reads, and any stretch the question was not being sampled. |
| How the crowd splits it | For exclusive outcomes: a bar per outcome with its price, a tick where it stood a week ago, and the change. A central bank's decision and a print's bands read in their own order; who-wins outcomes likeliest first. Click a bar to read that question. |
| When the crowd thinks it happens | For a ladder of deadlines: each deadline's price now (solid) and a week ago (dashed). Earlier deadlines that settled are counted under it. How far the crowd thinks it goes is the same for a ladder of levels. |
| The crowd | The questions over the window, each ending in its price and name. The one in focus is heavier, its moves numbered as in What moved it. Hatched: not sampled — no price is known there and the line breaks. Amber diamonds under the axis: the briefings that drew or watched it (hover for the headline). Dashed amber: the desk's own probability on an open position. |
| What moved it | The question's moves of five points or more within six hours, newest first: when, from and to, how unusual for this question (larger than N% of its six-hour moves), the money that traded and how much of it bought Yes, the whale tickets, and the headlines published from shortly before the move to just after it, timed from its start. |
| On the tape | The markets the event bears on, on the same clock as the crowd above — a gap is a market closed, never a flat line — with the latest price and the window's change. The line beside each name says how it has moved per ten points on the lead question, with its R²; no measurable link when there is none. Open trade theses on those markets are listed under. |
| The money | The question's money, day by day: what bought Yes above the line, what bought No below it; today's and this week's totals. Largest tickets, 30 days: time, question, side, size, price, trader. |
| The desk | Every briefing that drew or watched the event, newest first, with the price it froze that day — stale, struck through, when the question was not being sampled then — and the market theses on it with their entry and the desk's own number. A date opens that day's briefing. |
| In the news | Recent headlines that name the event. |
| Related on the board | Events on the same subjects or countries. Click to open one. |
| How it resolves | Polymarket's own resolution rules. |
The rail
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Moving | The day's largest moves on questions with a live two-sided book and money traded: the event, the question, its 24 hours as a line, its price and change. |
| Settled | Questions settled in the last three days: Yes or No, and what the crowd had the winning side at a day and a week before. |
Controls
| Gesture | Effect |
|---|---|
| Window — 7D / 30D / 60D | How far back the crowd, the tape and the money draw. |
| Click a theme chip | Shows only that theme; All clears it. |
| Click a mark on the tape | Opens that event on the question that moved. |
| Type in Search events | Filters by title, question or country. |
| Click a row, a mover, a settlement, a related event | Opens that event. The address follows, so the page can be shared. |
| Click a bar, a deadline, a line or its label | Reads that question: the figure, the read, the moves and the money follow it. |
| Hover a chart | Every question's price at that moment. |
Cross-check with other Hawkline features
- A Prices badge on a central-bank or data event: Macro opens the release with its own history and how its currency takes it.
- An On the desk badge or a desk row: the briefing of that day, where the desk wrote why it drew the market.
- An Open thesis badge: Theses for the full case.
- A move with no headline around it: News and TDI to look for what the wire missed.
Keep in mind
- A probability is a price, not a forecast. A thin book can sit far from fair value; check the spread and the money before reading much into a level.
- Headlines around a move are candidates, not causes. They landed near it; whether they moved it is yours to judge.
- A link to the tape is a correlation over the window. A strong R² says the two moved together, not that one drives the other.
- Not every question is sampled. The board lists what the desk's data sources track; a hatched stretch is time the question was not being followed, and a price the desk froze in it is marked stale.
- Trade counts are sampled. On a question trading very fast, the money between two pulls is undercounted.