IntelMicro
Intel

Micro

/intel?view=microstructure

What it answers

Two cross-asset reads on one page: for each asset, where its realized volatility sits against its own history, across four horizons. And, on intraday bars, how assets connect — who moves with whom once the common factor is stripped out, and who leads whom.

When to open it

  • To confirm a breakout, or catch a fake one. A breakout in a Compressed vol regime is far more credible than one in a Stretched regime, where every wick can trap you.
  • To read the cross-asset structure. The co-movement layer shows partial correlation — the direct link, common factor removed — which is what surfaces the real couples and the signed hedges (gold↔equities, dollar↔risk). The Tightest links panel pulls out the five strongest right now.
  • To exploit lead-lag. If EURJPY leads USDJPY by a minute with a clear asymmetry, looking at EURJPY first becomes an intraday edge.
  • To place an asset in its ecosystem. The drawer tells you what it moves with (neighbors), what leads it (incoming) and what it predicts (outgoing). Useful before taking a position, to know where to look for confirmation.

Anatomy

Three zones. At the top the pulse strip — a quick read of the dominant regime on the left, asset-class filter chips in the middle, the five tightest links on the right. Below, the body in two columns: on the left the Vol Regime heatmap (one asset per row, one column per horizon), on the right the cross-asset network (co-movement links + lead-lag arrows, over the same set of nodes). Clicking a heatmap row or a graph node opens an asset drawer on the right with its full volatility cone, its co-movement neighbors and its incoming / outgoing edges (up to three drawers side by side for comparison).

How to read it

The header filters

ElementHow to read it
1m / 5m / 15mIntraday bar size. Defaults to 1m: cross-asset lead-lag lives below the 5-minute horizon; the co-movement layer, by contrast, is insensitive to resolution.
7d / 10d / 14d / 20dThe analysis window. Defaults to 10d. A short window gives current but noisy relationships; a long one is stable but can dilute an emerging regime.
UTC pill on the rightThe exact time of computation. The network is computed live on every load; the vol heatmap comes from the daily snapshot.

Only the parameters that trigger a recompute (bars, window) sit in the shared header. The display settings — the co-move / lead-lag toggles and the ρ floor — live in the network panel's own header, next to the graph they filter.

The pulse strip

Three blocks side by side under the header.

Left block — Regime

A compressed read of the heatmap panel.

ElementHow to read it
The dominant band, largeCOMPRESSED, LOW, NORMAL, ELEVATED, STRETCHED — whichever band holds the most cells across the whole grid (assets × horizons).
N% stretched · N% compressedThe share of cells in the stretched / elevated zone, and the share in compressed / low. An instant read of the climate: above 30% stretched the market is in storm mode; above 30% compressed, in tense-calm mode.
SublineN cells · N assets — the material the diagnosis rests on.

Middle block — Filter classes

A clickable chip per asset class present in the snapshot — FX, Metals, Commodity, Index, Bond, Crypto. Its own color plus the class's asset count. Click = isolates the class everywhere (heatmap, graph, top edges, drawer counts). Clicking the same chip again = restores every class. A show all button appears as soon as a selection is active.

The five strongest co-movement links by absolute partial correlation.

Row elementHow to read it
A ~ BAn undirected link: the two assets move together.
Partial correlationSigned. Green above zero = co-movement. Red below = a hedge (inverse movement).

Clicking a row opens B's drawer.

The Vol Regime heatmap (left column)

One row per asset; one column per realized-volatility horizon — 5d, 21d, 63d, 252d. Each cell carries where the current vol sits in its own history. Default sort is 5d descending. The Asset column is frozen to the left.

Cell elementHow to read it
Background colorTinted by where it sits: increasingly saturated blue below 35 (compressed vol), neutral between 35 and 65, increasingly saturated red above 65 (stretched vol).
BandThe category derived from that position — Compressed, Low, Normal, Elevated, Stretched.
Displayed valueAnnualized realized volatility in %, plus its standing.

Patterns worth spotting:

  • A whole column in red: cross-asset vol expansion — typical of a macro regime shift.
  • A whole row in red: an idiosyncratic blow-out on a single asset.
  • 5d red, 252d cool: an event spike, mean-reversion likely.
  • 5d cool, 252d red: structurally elevated vol — today's calm is hiding a heavy trend.

At the foot of the heatmap, a mini distribution bar restates how cells are spread across the bands on the active selection.

The cross-asset network (right column)

Two layers over the same set of nodes. A deterministic layout by asset class on concentric arcs — the same data always gives the same graph, no physics simulation.

ElementHow to read it
NodeAn asset. Ring color = its class's color; size = intraday realized vol.
Co-movement linkA solid curve, undirected, its thickness carrying the partial correlation. Color = sign (co-movement green, hedge red). The backbone is drawn thicker; secondary links thinner.
Lead-lag arrowA dashed directed arrow: the head is the follower, the source is the leader. Reserved for couples that co-move and show a significant short lead.
Panel subtitleThe active parameters: Nm bars · Nd window · N links · N leads.
Panel headerThe co-move / lead-lag toggles (show/hide each layer) and the ρ floor (0.30 → 0.75, partial correlation; the backbone always stays visible).

Hovering a node dims everything not directly connected to it. Hovering a heatmap row does the same, and the asset is highlighted in the graph (and the other way around). Clicking a node opens its drawer.

The drawer (click a row or a node)

Full height on the right. Up to three drawers side by side for comparison; beyond that, the oldest slides out to the left.

BlockHow to read it
HeaderClass chip, asset code, full name.
HeroThe historical range used (from → to) and the sample size in bars.
Vol coneThe historical volatility cone over four horizons (5d, 21d, 63d, 252d). The stacked ribbons are the p10–p25, p25–p50, p50–p75, p75–p90 bands; the median is drawn as a line. The current marker sits on top, colored by its band. Above the top ribbon (past p90): a regime break. Below the bottom ribbon (under p10): unusual compression. A cone narrowing with the horizon means historical mean-reversion; one widening means structurally unstable vol.
Moves withCo-movement neighbors — the assets this one is directly linked to, common factor removed. Each row: a swatch colored by sign, the asset, a backbone mention if the link is part of the skeleton, and the signed partial correlation.
Leading this assetIncoming edges — the assets whose moves precede this one's. Each row: a swatch colored by sign, the source, the lag in minutes, the signed correlation (the lead-lag ratio in the tooltip). This is where to look to anticipate the asset.
Led by this assetOutgoing edges — the assets whose moves follow this one. Useful if you trade the target and want to check the source is still inside its predictive window.

Controls

GestureEffect
Click 1m / 5m / 15mRecomputes the network at the new granularity.
Click 7d / 10d / 14d / 20dRecomputes over the new window.
Click ρ 0.30 / 0.45 / 0.60 / 0.75Filters the co-movement layer client-side: secondary links under the threshold disappear, the backbone stays (no refetch).
Click co-move / lead-lagShows or hides that layer.
Click a class chipIsolates / restores the class everywhere. show all clears the selection.
Click a row in Tightest linksOpens B's drawer.
Click a heatmap column headerSorts by that horizon.
Hover a row (heatmap) or a node (graph)Highlights the same asset on both sides and dims the graph's unconnected neighborhood.
Click a row or a nodeOpens the drawer. Up to three in parallel.
EscCloses the most recently opened drawer.
× in a drawerCloses that drawer.

Cross-check with other Hawkline features

  • An asset Stretched on 5d but Compressed on 252d: News to identify the event behind the spike, then Markets if Polymarket is pricing a repricing off it.
  • A whole class at Stretched: Trend matrix to see whether the directional momentum follows (the RISK and FLOW factors in particular).
  • A lead-lag arrow involving a currency: FX for the pair's detail and decomposition.
  • An asset followed by several others (plenty of outgoing edges): that's a price leader — worth watching on Theses or Brief to see whether the desk has a call on it.

Keep in mind

  • All of this is correlation, not causation. Co-movement is a partial correlation (common factor removed, so a direct link), lead-lag a timing signal. An arrow EURJPY → USDJPY doesn't say EURJPY causes USDJPY: more often they share a driver that reaches one a few minutes before the other.
  • Edges are ephemeral. A strong relationship on 10d can collapse on 20d or 7d. Check it holds across several windows before turning it into a trade.
  • The cone is realized vol, not implied. The diagnosis looks at what happened, not at what options are pricing.
Micro — volatility & cross-asset | Hawkline Vision