Micro
/intel?view=microstructureWhat it answers
Two cross-asset reads on one page: for each asset, where its realized volatility sits against its own history, across four horizons. And, on intraday bars, how assets connect — who moves with whom once the common factor is stripped out, and who leads whom.
When to open it
- To confirm a breakout, or catch a fake one. A breakout in a Compressed vol regime is far more credible than one in a Stretched regime, where every wick can trap you.
- To read the cross-asset structure. The co-movement layer shows partial correlation — the direct link, common factor removed — which is what surfaces the real couples and the signed hedges (gold↔equities, dollar↔risk). The Tightest links panel pulls out the five strongest right now.
- To exploit lead-lag. If EURJPY leads USDJPY by a minute with a clear asymmetry, looking at EURJPY first becomes an intraday edge.
- To place an asset in its ecosystem. The drawer tells you what it moves with (neighbors), what leads it (incoming) and what it predicts (outgoing). Useful before taking a position, to know where to look for confirmation.
Anatomy
Three zones. At the top the pulse strip — a quick read of the dominant regime on the left, asset-class filter chips in the middle, the five tightest links on the right. Below, the body in two columns: on the left the Vol Regime heatmap (one asset per row, one column per horizon), on the right the cross-asset network (co-movement links + lead-lag arrows, over the same set of nodes). Clicking a heatmap row or a graph node opens an asset drawer on the right with its full volatility cone, its co-movement neighbors and its incoming / outgoing edges (up to three drawers side by side for comparison).
How to read it
The header filters
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| 1m / 5m / 15m | Intraday bar size. Defaults to 1m: cross-asset lead-lag lives below the 5-minute horizon; the co-movement layer, by contrast, is insensitive to resolution. |
| 7d / 10d / 14d / 20d | The analysis window. Defaults to 10d. A short window gives current but noisy relationships; a long one is stable but can dilute an emerging regime. |
| UTC pill on the right | The exact time of computation. The network is computed live on every load; the vol heatmap comes from the daily snapshot. |
Only the parameters that trigger a recompute (bars, window) sit in the shared header. The display settings — the co-move / lead-lag toggles and the ρ floor — live in the network panel's own header, next to the graph they filter.
The pulse strip
Three blocks side by side under the header.
Left block — Regime
A compressed read of the heatmap panel.
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| The dominant band, large | COMPRESSED, LOW, NORMAL, ELEVATED, STRETCHED — whichever band holds the most cells across the whole grid (assets × horizons). |
N% stretched · N% compressed | The share of cells in the stretched / elevated zone, and the share in compressed / low. An instant read of the climate: above 30% stretched the market is in storm mode; above 30% compressed, in tense-calm mode. |
| Subline | N cells · N assets — the material the diagnosis rests on. |
Middle block — Filter classes
A clickable chip per asset class present in the snapshot — FX, Metals, Commodity, Index, Bond, Crypto. Its own color plus the class's asset count. Click = isolates the class everywhere (heatmap, graph, top edges, drawer counts). Clicking the same chip again = restores every class. A show all button appears as soon as a selection is active.
Right block — Tightest links
The five strongest co-movement links by absolute partial correlation.
| Row element | How to read it |
|---|---|
A ~ B | An undirected link: the two assets move together. |
| Partial correlation | Signed. Green above zero = co-movement. Red below = a hedge (inverse movement). |
Clicking a row opens B's drawer.
The Vol Regime heatmap (left column)
One row per asset; one column per realized-volatility horizon — 5d, 21d, 63d, 252d. Each cell carries where the current vol sits in its own history. Default sort is 5d descending. The Asset column is frozen to the left.
| Cell element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Background color | Tinted by where it sits: increasingly saturated blue below 35 (compressed vol), neutral between 35 and 65, increasingly saturated red above 65 (stretched vol). |
| Band | The category derived from that position — Compressed, Low, Normal, Elevated, Stretched. |
| Displayed value | Annualized realized volatility in %, plus its standing. |
Patterns worth spotting:
- A whole column in red: cross-asset vol expansion — typical of a macro regime shift.
- A whole row in red: an idiosyncratic blow-out on a single asset.
- 5d red, 252d cool: an event spike, mean-reversion likely.
- 5d cool, 252d red: structurally elevated vol — today's calm is hiding a heavy trend.
At the foot of the heatmap, a mini distribution bar restates how cells are spread across the bands on the active selection.
The cross-asset network (right column)
Two layers over the same set of nodes. A deterministic layout by asset class on concentric arcs — the same data always gives the same graph, no physics simulation.
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Node | An asset. Ring color = its class's color; size = intraday realized vol. |
| Co-movement link | A solid curve, undirected, its thickness carrying the partial correlation. Color = sign (co-movement green, hedge red). The backbone is drawn thicker; secondary links thinner. |
| Lead-lag arrow | A dashed directed arrow: the head is the follower, the source is the leader. Reserved for couples that co-move and show a significant short lead. |
| Panel subtitle | The active parameters: Nm bars · Nd window · N links · N leads. |
| Panel header | The co-move / lead-lag toggles (show/hide each layer) and the ρ floor (0.30 → 0.75, partial correlation; the backbone always stays visible). |
Hovering a node dims everything not directly connected to it. Hovering a heatmap row does the same, and the asset is highlighted in the graph (and the other way around). Clicking a node opens its drawer.
The drawer (click a row or a node)
Full height on the right. Up to three drawers side by side for comparison; beyond that, the oldest slides out to the left.
| Block | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Header | Class chip, asset code, full name. |
| Hero | The historical range used (from → to) and the sample size in bars. |
| Vol cone | The historical volatility cone over four horizons (5d, 21d, 63d, 252d). The stacked ribbons are the p10–p25, p25–p50, p50–p75, p75–p90 bands; the median is drawn as a line. The current marker sits on top, colored by its band. Above the top ribbon (past p90): a regime break. Below the bottom ribbon (under p10): unusual compression. A cone narrowing with the horizon means historical mean-reversion; one widening means structurally unstable vol. |
| Moves with | Co-movement neighbors — the assets this one is directly linked to, common factor removed. Each row: a swatch colored by sign, the asset, a backbone mention if the link is part of the skeleton, and the signed partial correlation. |
| Leading this asset | Incoming edges — the assets whose moves precede this one's. Each row: a swatch colored by sign, the source, the lag in minutes, the signed correlation (the lead-lag ratio in the tooltip). This is where to look to anticipate the asset. |
| Led by this asset | Outgoing edges — the assets whose moves follow this one. Useful if you trade the target and want to check the source is still inside its predictive window. |
Controls
| Gesture | Effect |
|---|---|
| Click 1m / 5m / 15m | Recomputes the network at the new granularity. |
| Click 7d / 10d / 14d / 20d | Recomputes over the new window. |
| Click ρ 0.30 / 0.45 / 0.60 / 0.75 | Filters the co-movement layer client-side: secondary links under the threshold disappear, the backbone stays (no refetch). |
| Click co-move / lead-lag | Shows or hides that layer. |
| Click a class chip | Isolates / restores the class everywhere. show all clears the selection. |
| Click a row in Tightest links | Opens B's drawer. |
| Click a heatmap column header | Sorts by that horizon. |
| Hover a row (heatmap) or a node (graph) | Highlights the same asset on both sides and dims the graph's unconnected neighborhood. |
| Click a row or a node | Opens the drawer. Up to three in parallel. |
| Esc | Closes the most recently opened drawer. |
× in a drawer | Closes that drawer. |
Cross-check with other Hawkline features
- An asset Stretched on 5d but Compressed on 252d: News to identify the event behind the spike, then Markets if Polymarket is pricing a repricing off it.
- A whole class at Stretched: Trend matrix to see whether the directional momentum follows (the RISK and FLOW factors in particular).
- A lead-lag arrow involving a currency: FX for the pair's detail and decomposition.
- An asset followed by several others (plenty of outgoing edges): that's a price leader — worth watching on Theses or Brief to see whether the desk has a call on it.
Keep in mind
- All of this is correlation, not causation. Co-movement is a partial correlation (common factor removed, so a direct link), lead-lag a timing signal. An arrow
EURJPY → USDJPYdoesn't say EURJPY causes USDJPY: more often they share a driver that reaches one a few minutes before the other. - Edges are ephemeral. A strong relationship on 10d can collapse on 20d or 7d. Check it holds across several windows before turning it into a trade.
- The cone is realized vol, not implied. The diagnosis looks at what happened, not at what options are pricing.