TDI
/intel?view=tdiWhat it answers
Seventeen operational streams — military flights, naval activity, chokepoint transits, GPS interference, cyber, seismic, outages — each read against its own normal, and ranked against the size of the search that found it.
When to open it
- A headline lands and you need to know whether it is unusual. An alarming story can describe a perfectly ordinary day for the stream concerned.
- A safe-haven moves for no visible reason. Check Military flights, Naval activity and Chokepoint transits before the wires.
- You want what nobody reported. Hunt holds every scored series-day, and Going dark filters to collapses — a strait emptying, a country losing connectivity, a fleet going quiet.
Anatomy
Three modes in the header, in investigation order: Now, Timeline, Hunt. To their right, a pill gives the reading's age — green = current, amber = late.
A drawer opens from any row, cell or card and is where the detail lives. It stays open across modes.
How to read it
The verdicts
Seventeen streams cut by every dimension is around six hundred series read every day. On a search that size, "unusual" on its own is worthless — plenty of series look extreme on any given day for no reason at all. A reading earns a badge only once it stands out given how many places were looked at.
| Badge | How to read it |
|---|---|
| CONFIRMED | Stands up against the size of the day's search. Of twenty such flags, expect about one to be noise. |
| NOTABLE | Stands up on a looser bar. A lead, not a finding. |
| ELEVATED | Well outside its own normal range, but not enough to clear the search. Shown rather than hidden. |
| (no badge) | Inside its own normal range. |
The signed figure beside the badge — −3.7σ, +2.6σ — is how far the day sits
from that series' own normal, negative below and positive above. The ordinary
reading holds: 2σ is a one-in-twenty day for that series, 3σ about one in
three hundred. It stops at >4.5σ, past which the history behind it can no
longer tell one extreme from another.
When there is no verdict
These four are not quiet days. Each says why no verdict is possible, and each is drawn with a dashed border so it cannot be mistaken for a reading.
| State | How to read it |
|---|---|
| DAY IN PROGRESS | The day is not over. The figure is projected; no verdict until it closes. |
| NO BASELINE | Too new to judge — fewer than five weeks of its own history. Usually a key the feed has only just started reporting: before its first appearance it was not quiet, it was not being watched. |
| FEED CHANGED | The source changed what it measures — a satellite added, a watchlist widened, a field newly filled. Nothing before the change is compared with anything after; verdicts return once five weeks have built up on the new instrument. |
| FEED DOWN | The source was broken that day. The gap is ours, not the world's. |
Now
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Scanned N series · N cleared | The size of the search, then what survived it. |
N confirmed · N above 2σ | The second figure is always the larger. It is what a bare threshold would return, not the finding. |
N up · N down · N withheld | Direction split, then how many series got no verdict. |
| Verdict floor, Direction, Domain | Filters. They carry into Timeline and Hunt. |
| Signal of the day | One card: the strongest reading, with observed against normal and the multiple. Click to open its drawer. |
| The board | One row per stream, worst first. A stream whose source is behind sorts above the quiet ones. |
N of M diverging · source Nd behind | Under each stream name: how much of it is moving, and whether the source is current. |
Click a stream row to unfold it — the whole-stream reading, its most divergent members, and + N more in Hunt → for the rest. Click a member to open the drawer.
The drawer
| Section | What it gives you |
|---|---|
| The verdict line | Observed against normal, the multiple, and how rare that is for this series. Then deviation, expected, spread, rarity. |
| History · Nd · window Nd | The series' own daily history. Drag the handles to move or widen the window and every figure reprices against comparable windows from this series' past. Widen it to seven days to ask whether the week was unusual. |
| Distance from expected · past year | How far this series usually lands from its own normal, in its own unit and signed, with today marked on it. |
| What else was happening | ±48h in the same place: news, Polymarket markets, disaster alerts, travel advisories, aircraft loiter episodes, scheduled elections and macro releases, space weather. Each row opens the thing it names, in the view that owns it, in a new tab. Nothing here is scored or offered as a cause. |
| Same key, same day | Other streams that diverged in the same place on the same day. |
| Precedent | Previous times this series reached comparable extremity. Click one to reopen the drawer at that day. |
Timeline
A bar per day counting how many streams were diverging, with an amber cap for the part that cleared the bar. Below it, on the same grid, the ribbon: streams down, days across.
| Mark | How to read it |
|---|---|
| SURGE / COLLAPSE | Above or below normal. Deeper colour = further out. |
| CLEARED THE BAR | The part of a day's bar that earned a badge. |
| NO VERDICT | Hatched cell — one of the four states above. |
| FEED CHANGED | Violet hairline down a cell's left edge. |
Hover any cell or bar and the header line reads it out. Every cell is as-of: the colour for a day in April is what the product would have said in April, not what hindsight says now.
Hunt
The full register, filterable. Leads are one-click starting points that each
state what they filtered on: Confirmed today, Going dark, Never seen
before, Chokepoints, Force posture, My watchlist. Below them,
Window, Verdict, Direction, Domain, Stream, Sort, and a
Key box to search a place (HORMUZ, TUR, isr). The header always states
how many series-days the page came from.
Controls
| Gesture | Effect |
|---|---|
| Now / Timeline / Hunt | Switch mode. Filters and the open drawer carry across. |
| Click a stream row | Unfolds its most divergent members. |
| Click a member, ribbon cell, bar, precedent or neighbour | Opens the drawer there. |
| Hover a ribbon cell or bar | Reads it out in the panel header. |
| Drag the window handles in the drawer | Reprices every figure against comparable windows. Release on a single day to get the register's own verdict back. |
| Click the star on a row | Pins the series. Pinned series ride at the top of Now with today's verdict on them, and My watchlist in Hunt filters to them. |
| Esc | Closes the drawer. |
Cross-check with other Hawkline features
- Military flights, Naval activity or GPS interference CONFIRMED on a region: Monitor to see it on the map with the operational layers.
- A wave on OSINT article volume or Cyber indicators: News to pick up the narrative and check the sources.
- Chokepoint transits collapsing: Markets for the adjacent Polymarket contracts, then energy and shipping.
- Several streams diverging over one area: Brief to see whether the desk already publishes a read.
- A persistent Internet outages or Airport disruptions reading: operational stress on a country, worth having before a trade on its currency via FX.
Keep in mind
- This measures a gap, not a direction. A confirmed divergence says something unusual is happening — not that it is good or bad for an asset.
- Absence is not evidence of absence. ADS-B and AIS are voluntary: an aircraft or a warship that goes dark leaves the same trace as one that was never there. Fire hotspots are only watched inside a set of monitoring boxes, so nothing outside them can register at all.
- Streams are not comparable to each other by eye. Each is read against its own normal, and what counts as normal differs by stream — a weekday effect on flights, none on seismic.
- A dragged window is not corrected. Figures that reprice while you drag are scored against that series' own history only, not against the size of the day's search. Only the badge says "unusual given everywhere we looked".