FX
/intel?view=fxWhat it answers
The eight forex majors projected onto one axis — a Strength Index normalized to 100 — crossed with macro health, COT positioning, realized volatility, and the decomposition of all 28 pairs (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF two by two) into base-strength versus quote-strength. This is the view where you read a currency as an asset in its own right, then pick the pair that best expresses the conviction.
When to open it
- To spot macro-versus-price divergences: a currency whose macro is improving while its price falls (or the reverse) — the natural ground for macro FX theses.
- To surface the aligned pairs: the rail's
▲counter keeps only the pairs whose signals point the same way (macro, positioning, strength). Those are the cleanest ones to dig into. - To compare two currencies side by side: open two drawers at once; the Strength Index highlights both their curves automatically.
Anatomy
Two bands. At the top: the Strength Index (a line chart of the eight majors normalized to 100 at the start date) on the left, and the KPI panel on the right. Below, the body in two columns: the currency tiles on the left (one per major, ranked by current strength), and the pairs rail on the right (all 28 combinations, with their base-versus-quote score breakdown). Clicking a tile or a pair opens a drawer at the bottom: full context for a currency, or a cross snapshot for a pair — up to two drawers side by side.
How to read it
The header filters
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| 30D / 90D / 1Y / 5Y | The Strength Index period. Everything is rebased to 100 at the start date — useful for comparing relative paths, not absolute levels. The currency tiles follow the same period. Defaults to 30D. |
| Calendar icon | Opens a From / To picker for a custom period. |
vol 10d / 20d / 50d | The realized-volatility window shown in the currency drawer. |
The Strength Index (top left)
A line chart: the eight majors, rebased to 100 at the start date.
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| One curve per currency | Its relative path since the start date. Above 100 = stronger than it was, below = weaker. The slope matters more than the absolute value. |
| Subtitle | {N}d · vol {W}d · {start} — {end} — trading days, vol window, and the period's bounds. |
| Highlight | Hovering a curve (or opening a drawer) fades the other currencies so the target reads clearly. |
| Clickable legend | Toggles a currency off and back onto the chart. |
The KPI panel (top right)
Five cells, three of them clickable to toggle the matching lens.
| Cell | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Strongest | The currency with the highest current strength (rank 1) and its gap to the basket, in green. |
| Weakest | Rank 8, in red. Gives you both ends of the day's spread at a glance. |
| Divergent (clickable) | How many macro-versus-price divergences are active, and how many are strong. Click = toggles the Divergent lens. |
| Crowded (clickable) | How many currencies sit above P90 or below P10 on COT positioning. Click = Crowded lens. |
| At Risk (clickable) | How many currencies carry an AT RISK verdict. Click = At Risk lens. |
A currency tile (left column)
One per major, ranked by strength descending. The left border is colored when a divergence is active on the currency — red for strong, orange for moderate, gold for weak.
| Block | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Header | A pill in the curve's hue, flag, currency code, country name, #rank by strength (1 = strongest), and Ne — the count of releases due in the next 14 days. |
| STR | The gap to the basket at current value (rebased to 100), with the weekly change on the subline. |
| MACRO | Signed macro momentum (positive = recent beats carrying weight). Subline: the dominant domain (labor, inflation, growth, pmi, …). |
| COT | P{n} — the non-commercial positioning percentile. Subline: Crowded Long, Crowded Short, Elev Long, Elev Short, or Neutral. |
| Sparkline | Normalized strength over the period's last ~40 points, in the Strength Index curve's hue. |
| DIV block (when active) | ▲ macro improving / ▼ macro deteriorating against ▲ price strengthening / ▼ price weakening, a severity badge (STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK), and duration in days. A bipolar sparkline underneath: the divergence score over 90 days, positive = macro running ahead of price, negative = price running ahead of macro. |
| Footer | The verdict — SUPPORTED (macro and price aligned) / DIVERGENT (moderate disagreement) / AT RISK (sharp disagreement or extreme positioning) — followed by the next release. |
The pairs rail (right column)
The 28 combinations of the majors, sorted by signal magnitude (|base − quote|). When a currency focus is active, the pairs involving the focused currency rise to the top.
| Column | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Pair | Base / quote code, for instance EUR/USD, AUD/JPY. |
| Base vs Quote | A bipolar bar: green when the leg's score is bullish, red when bearish. The width reflects each side's relative weight. |
| Align | Three dots: 1/3 (gray) an isolated signal, 2/3 (primary) two signals agreeing, 3/3 (green) full alignment. Counts the macro / positioning / strength signals pointing the same way. |
| Driver | The currency pulling the pair — the code in the score's color, or — when the two sides balance out. |
| Cfl | A counter of internal conflicts (extreme positioning on one side, macro disagreeing with strength, and so on). |
The rail's header shows {filtered}/{total} · {N}▲ {M}⚠ — pairs shown out of the total, of which N are strongly aligned (2/3 or 3/3) and M carry at least one conflict. ▲ and ⚠ are clickable: each narrows the rail to its category, click again to lift.
The currency drawer
Opens when you click a tile. Two drawers open side by side at most.
| Block | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Header | Flag, code, country, then Rank, Δ vs base (the gap to the basket) and Index (the rebased value). |
| Verdict banner | SUPPORTED / DIVERGENT / AT RISK, followed by the read in plain words. When a divergence is active, ▲ macro versus ▼ price, duration and severity show on the right. |
| Price | The strength curve over the period, then Week and Month (change), Week rank (its ranking on the week), In week range (where the close sits in the weekly range, 0% = low, 100% = high). Below that, realized volatility at 5d, 20d, 60d, the 5/60 ratio (>1 = vol accelerating, <1 = compressing) and the regime: expanding, stable, or compressing. |
| Macro | Momentum, Streak, the Beat / miss split — the same reads as on Macro, projected onto this currency — and Top domain, the domain weighing most on the current macro read. Below, the number of releases due over 14 days and the next one up. |
| Positioning | The non-commercial Percentile on its gauge, Z-score, Flow (Long Build, Short Build, Long Liquidation, Short Cover), the extreme label (Crowded Long / Short, Elevated Long / Short, Neutral) and the reversal risk (REV LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH). |
| Pairs | Every pair touching this currency. Three dots give the alignment, N⚠ the conflict count. Click to open the matching pair drawer. |
An arrow at the head of Price, Macro and Positioning gives each signal's direction — reading them left to right tells you whether all three agree, which is what the verdict settles.
The pair drawer
| Block | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Header | The pair code (AUD/JPY, say), subtitle: alignment (strong / partial / weak), an N/3 score, and the driver (which side pulls — base, quote, or balanced). |
| BASE / QUOTE cards, side by side | For each side: flag, code, country, signed score. Stats: Macro (momentum + trend hint), COT (P{n} + extreme label), Strength (#rank + delta), Events (14d count). Badges: extreme + flow when not neutral. |
| Conflicts (when present) | A written list of the internal frictions — CHF at crowded short — reversal risk, Macro improving but price weakening, and so on. |
Open X detail buttons | Opens the currency drawer for either side. |
Controls
| Gesture | Effect |
|---|---|
| Click 30D / 90D / 1Y / 5Y | Redefines the window for the Strength Index and the currency tiles. |
| Click the calendar icon | Opens the From / To picker, then Apply for a custom period. |
Click vol 10d / 20d / 50d | Redefines the realized-vol window shown in the drawers. |
| Click Divergent / Crowded / At Risk in the KPI panel | Dims the tiles outside the filter. Click again to lift. |
Click ▲ or ⚠ in the rail's header | Narrows the rail to the aligned or conflicted pairs. Click again to lift. |
| Hover a Strength Index curve | Highlights the hovered curve, fades the others. |
| Click a currency in the chart legend | Hides / restores that curve. |
| Click a currency tile | Opens the currency drawer. Click again to close. While a drawer is open, its curve stays highlighted on the chart and the pairs involving it rise to the top of the rail. |
| Click a pair in the rail | Opens the pair drawer. |
Click an Open X detail button in a pair drawer | Switches to the matching currency drawer. |
| Esc | Closes the most recently opened drawer. |
✕ in a drawer | Closes that drawer. |
Cross-check with other Hawkline features
- A pair at 3/3 alignment: cross it with the Trend matrix — the OVERALL score on the pair confirms the fundamentals-based call, or doesn't.
- A currency at Crowded Long or Crowded Short positioning: COT gives the raw non-commercial position, week by week, with the flow dynamic (long build, long liquidation, short cover) broken out.
- An imminent release under a focused currency's Macro: Macro gives the history of average FX moves on that specific release — beat versus miss.
- A geopolitical event in the background: Brief may already have framed the divergence inside an arc.
Keep in mind
- The verdict combines several signals and stays sensitive to extremes. A currency can read AT RISK purely because of crowded positioning, with no active divergence at all. The drawer's verdict banner tells you where the risk comes from.
- COT is weekly. The positioning snapshot updates once a week (typically Friday evening UTC). A mid-week market move won't show up in the percentile straight away.
In week rangereads as a proxy for weekly momentum: a close near 100% means the currency closed near its high of the week. Not a guarantee of continuation.