●Intel
COT
/intel?view=cotWhat it answers
The real positioning of large participants in regulated futures, published every week by the CFTC: who is long, who is short, how extreme that sits against their own history, and which way the position is moving.
When to open it
- To place an asset the Trend matrix flags as extreme on POS. COT is the raw source behind the POS read: percentile, velocity, streak, flow.
- To read the climate across a whole asset class. The Crowding strip tells you in one line whether Forex, Metals, Energy, Index or Crypto sits in monolithic consensus or with positions scattered.
Anatomy
Two stacked blocks. At the top the crowding pulse — one row per selected asset class, with its Risk, its Bias, and the contracts sitting at an extreme; expanding a class unfolds a history chart underneath, over the chosen window. Below, the positioning table — one row per contract, thirteen sortable columns. Clicking a row opens an instrument drawer on the right (up to three side by side, for comparison).
How to read it
The header filters
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Layers icon | Multi-class selection — Forex, Metals, Energy, Index, Crypto. The badge on the icon counts the active classes. At least one class at all times. |
| 1Y / 2Y / 3Y / 5Y | How much history to use. It drives the percentiles, the drawer stats and the chart window alike. Defaults to 5Y. |
| Date on the right | The date of the last CFTC report taken into account. COT publishes on Friday for Tuesday's position: there is a structural lag of a few days. |
The crowding pulse (top)
One row per selected asset class. The quick read: is there monolithic consensus on the class, or are positions scattered?
| Column | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Class | The class name — FOREX, METALS, ENERGY, INDEX, CRYPTO. |
| Risk | The class's systemic risk: ELEVATED, MODERATE, LOW. Depends on how many contracts sit at an extreme and how intense the bias is. |
| Bias | The class's signed net bias. A label (STRONGLY BULLISH, BULLISH, NEUTRAL, BEARISH, STRONGLY BEARISH) plus the signed value between -1.00 and +1.00. Green if bullish, red if bearish. |
| Crowded Positions | The contracts sitting at an extreme: ▲ CODE Pp (extreme long, green) and ▼ CODE Pp (extreme short, red), where Pp is their percentile. — if nothing is extreme. |
Click a row to unfold the class's crowding history chart:
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Amber Crowding % line | Crowding intensity on the class (left axis, 0–100). When it holds durably above 50, the background tints: that's where consensus becomes a risk. |
| Purple Net Bias line | The class's net bias (right axis, -1 to +1). Above zero = leaning long, below = leaning short. The horizontal reference line marks neutrality. |
| X axis | Dates as MM/YY, over the active 1Y / 2Y / 3Y / 5Y window. |
The positioning table
One row per tracked contract. The Class column only appears when more than one class is selected. Default sort is alphabetical on Contract; click any header to sort.
| Column | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Class | The contract's class (FOREX, METALS, and so on). Shown in multi-class mode only. |
| Contract | The contract code (EUR, GOLD, WTI, BTC, SPX, …). Frozen to the left on horizontal scroll. |
| Chg | Weekly change in Net Long %, in percentage points. ▲ green if more bullish, ▼ red if more bearish, — otherwise. |
| Net Long % | The share of the net position that is long. > 50% = leaning long (green cell), < 50% = leaning short (red cell). |
| Percentile | Where the Net Long % sits in its own history over the chosen window. A horizontal bar: the edges (0–10 and 90–100) are red — the extreme zone; the flanks (10–25 and 75–90) amber — the elevated zone; the middle (25–75) gray. |
| Extreme | Classification of the extreme: CRWD LONG, CRWD SHORT, ELEV LONG, ELEV SHORT, or NEUTRAL. A trailing • (a solid-filled badge) means the contract has just entered the extreme this week — the crossing, not the state. |
| Velocity | How fast the position is being rebuilt over recent weeks, in points of Net Long % per week. An ▲ / ▼ / — arrow plus the absolute value. Green if it's pushing long, red if short. |
| Flow | What the move is made of: Long Build (longs piling on), Short Build (shorts piling on), Long Liq (longs unwinding), Short Cover (shorts buying back), Unchanged. |
| Reversal | Reversal risk: HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW. Combines an extreme percentile, persistence, and the trend in Open Interest. |
| Streak | Consecutive weeks in the same direction. +Nw green for a bullish run, −Nw red for a bearish one. A long streak plus an extreme percentile is the setup most at risk of reversing. |
| ΔL | Weekly change in the raw number of open long contracts. Green if positive (longs opening), red if negative (longs closing). |
| ΔS | Weekly change in short contracts. The color code is inverted by convention: green if negative (shorts closing, upward pressure) and red if positive (shorts opening, downward pressure). |
The instrument drawer (click a row)
Opens on the right. Up to three drawers side by side — useful for taking in EUR / GBP / JPY at a glance. Beyond that, the oldest slides out to the left.
| Block | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Header | The contract's code and long name, the asset class in caps, and the report date. |
| Net Long % / Percentile chart | Two curves over the chosen window. The raw Net Long % curve in dark blue, the Percentile curve (where that sits historically) in light blue. The background tints red at the percentile's edges to mark the extremes. |
| Stats | Percentile, Z-Score (how far the reading sits from its own history), Net Long %, Velocity, Accel (the change in velocity — positive = accelerating, negative = losing steam), Streak, ΔL, ΔS, and OI (total Open Interest — how many contracts are open across all positions, a depth indicator). |
| Badges | Repeats Extreme, Flow, Reversal from the table, plus an OI chip with its trend (EXPANDING, STABLE, CONTRACTING) and the weekly change as a percentage. |
| Reversal Factors | When the Reversal pill isn't LOW, this lists the specific triggers weighing on it — typically EXTREME PERCENTILE, OI CONTRACTING, LONG STREAK, and the like. |
Controls
| Gesture | Effect |
|---|---|
| Layers icon | Opens the asset-class selection. Toggles; there is always at least one left. |
| Click 1Y / 2Y / 3Y / 5Y | Changes the history window. Percentiles, drawer stats, velocity and charts all refresh. |
| Click a table column header | Sorts ascending / descending. |
| Click a pulse row | Unfolds the class's history chart. One at a time. |
| Click a table row | Opens the instrument drawer. Up to three in parallel. |
| Esc | Closes the most recently opened drawer. |
✕ in a drawer | Closes that drawer. |
Cross-check with other Hawkline features
- A CRWD LONG or CRWD SHORT contract with Reversal HIGH: Trend matrix to check what the other factor categories say — POS alone doesn't make a trade. If MACRO or FLOW point the same way, conviction goes up.
- A Long Build or Short Build flow on an Energy or Metals contract: Macro, to weigh it against an inflation or growth print that would justify the accumulation.
- A class at ELEVATED Risk on the pulse: Brief, to see whether the desk has already published a read that prices that consensus.
- A reversal underway (
•after the extreme): FX on the Forex class, for the detail of the pairs involved and their decomposition.
Keep in mind
- Publication lag. The CFTC publishes every Friday at 15:30 ET for the position as of the preceding Tuesday: what you are looking at today can be three to five days behind the tape. A violent price move since Tuesday won't show up until the next report.
- Scope: regulated futures only. COT only sees listed futures (CME, ICE…) and their options. Spot FX, CFDs, ETFs and OTC positions are not in the picture. On Crypto, COT covers CME futures — not the perp market; a useful read, but a partial one.