Macro
/intel?view=macroWhat it answers
The macro calendar of the eight forex majors crossed with the history of FX reactions: for each currency, where it stands against expectations (recent beats / misses, momentum, streak), what prints are coming, and how the market has historically moved on beats and misses of each type of release.
When to open it
- Preparing ahead of a big print — an NFP, a Fed decision, a CPI — when you want to know first how that currency has moved on average on that release, beat versus miss, and with what volatility.
- To place a currency in its macro cycle: the regime tile puts every major on the beat-rate × momentum plane, and sorts everyone into RE-ACCEL, COOLING, BOTTOMING or WORSENING at a glance.
- To plan the week: the impact window at the top ranks the days ahead by density of releases and by weight. The tallest bar is your day at risk.
Anatomy
Three zones. At the top, the full-width strip: the impact window (a histogram of the days ahead, one bar per day) on the left, the KPI panel on the right. Below, the body in two columns: the country scorecards on the left (one tile per selected currency, plus the regime tile as a bonus), and the timeline on the right (the calendar rolled out day by day). Click an event in the timeline or in a mini reaction table and a drawer appears at the bottom with that release's full history — up to two drawers open side by side.
How to read it
The header filters
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Globe icon | Multi-country selection. USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF — the eight forex majors. At least one active. |
| Layers icon | Multi-domain selection: Labor, Inflation, Growth, PMI, Interest, Sentiment, Trade, Housing. Constrains both the scorecards and the timeline. |
| T3 / T2+ | Release tier. T3 = the very big prints only. T2+ = T2 and T3 (the bulk of the calendar). |
| 6M / 1Y / 2Y | How far back the scorecards and reaction stats reach. Shorter = more responsive to recent cycles; longer = steadier stats. |
| 7D / 14D / 21D / 30D | The forward window — how many days of agenda to show in the impact window and the timeline. |
The impact window (top left)
A horizontal histogram: one column per day of the forward window.
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Bar height | The day's total weight — the sum of the scheduled releases' impact. The taller it is, the busier the day. |
| Color | An intensity scale: red for the peaks, amber for meaningful days, gray for the quiet ones. |
| Dots under the bar | One dot per event, up to four, then +N for the rest. Gives the raw count independently of the weight. |
| Day / date | Under the bar: day of the week and day number. |
| Click | Focuses that day — the timeline scrolls to it and opens the event list. A second click unfocuses. |
The KPI panel (top right)
| Cell | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Window | Total releases and the length of the forward window. |
| Peak day | The busiest day — date, number of releases, total impact. In red: this is the moment to protect. |
| Hot country | The currency whose momentum × event count combination stands out most. Flag + code + signed momentum value. |
| Busiest | The currency with the most releases ahead within the forward window. |
The country scorecards (left column)
One tile per selected currency, sorted by BEAT % descending.
| Element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Header | Flag, currency code, country name, and N next — the number of releases ahead within the forward window. |
| BEAT Z (green) | A signed reading of how intense the beats have been over the selected period. The more positive, the sharper the upside surprises. |
| MISS Z (red) | A signed reading of how intense the misses have been. The more negative, the sharper the disappointments. |
| BEAT % | The share of prints that beat consensus over the period. 50% = neutral; above that, the currency surprises to the upside more often than not. |
| N | Total observations over the period. A small N means a read to weight down. |
| Colored ribbon | One cell per active domain: width reflects the domain's share of events, opacity the intensity of the surprises. Colors match the domain legend at the foot of the zone. |
mom + bar + chip | Signed momentum: positive when recent beats outweigh recent misses. The chip takes the color of the sign (green / red / gray). |
streak + dots | The signed streak of recent surprising prints — +N = N consecutive beats (green), −N = N consecutive misses (red), — if there's nothing to report. |
The Event reaction mini table (at the foot of each scorecard)
The country's eight most-observed releases, by observation count descending.
| Column | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Name + domain | A short label (Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories, Consumer Confidence, House Price Index, …) with the domain on a subline. |
| Beat | Average FX move in % on the days the release beat consensus. In green. |
| Miss | Average FX move in % on the days it disappointed. In red. |
| N | How many observations the averages rest on. |
Click a row to open that release's history drawer.
The regime tile (the last cell in the scorecard grid)
A quadrant scatter plot — BEAT % on X (20% to 80%), momentum on Y.
| Quadrant | How to read it |
|---|---|
| RE-ACCEL (top right) | Beat % > 50 and positive momentum. The currency beats consensus and is accelerating. |
| COOLING (bottom right) | Beat % > 50 but negative momentum. Still in beat territory, but losing steam. |
| BOTTOMING (top left) | Beat % < 50 and positive momentum. More misses than beats over the window, but the recent run is turning up. |
| WORSENING (bottom left) | Beat % < 50 and negative momentum. Missing consensus and still slipping. |
Each currency appears as a point in its quadrant; the point's size reflects the observation count. To the right of the plot, a table recaps the regimes sorted by composite score (distance from 50 combined with amplified momentum).
The timeline (right column)
Stacked vertically: one row per day of the forward window, in chronological order. The subtitle restates the active window and the focused currency (next 14d · USD, for instance).
| Day element | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Header | Day of the week + short date + number of releases + a horizontal impact bar. |
| Chevron | Unfolds / folds the day's detail. The peak day is open by default. |
| Release line | UTC time, flag, currency code, the release's long label. |
The stats on a release line (timeline)
| Cell | How to read it |
|---|---|
| prev | The last known print. |
| cons / fcst | Consensus if available, otherwise the forecast. The cell tells you which of the two is in use. |
| beat (green) | The historical average FX move in % on days this release beats consensus. |
| miss (red) | The historical average FX move on a miss. |
| hit | The historical percentage of beats on this release — a proxy for how directionally reliable consensus is. |
Clicking a row opens that release's history drawer (below).
A release's history drawer
Opens at the bottom. Two drawers side by side at most; opening a third pushes the oldest out.
| Block | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Title | The release's name. Subtitle: currency, domain, T2 or T3, polarity (↑ = bullish-when-beat, ↓ = bullish-when-miss, • = neutral), total observations. |
| Beat Avg Move | Average FX move in % across every historical beat; median, dispersion, and n= on a subline. |
| Miss Avg Move | The same on the miss side. |
| Inline Avg Move | The average move when the print landed exactly on consensus. |
| Last N prints | A reverse-chronological table — date, actual, expected, signed surprise, z=… (how intense the surprise was), FX move. |
| Top Beats / Top Misses | The ten largest upside and downside surprises on record, same columns. |
The category legend (at the foot of the scorecard zone)
A recap of the active domains with their event totals, and the three swatches beat z (green) / miss z (red) / momentum (primary) — a reminder of the color codes used in the ribbons and chips.
Controls
| Gesture | Effect |
|---|---|
| Click the globe / layers icon | Opens the country / domain list. Toggle to enable or disable. |
| Click T3 / T2+ | Narrows to the selected tier. |
| Click a period (6M / 1Y / 2Y) | Refreshes the scorecards and reaction stats over that window. |
| Click a forward window (7D / 14D / 21D / 30D) | Redefines the horizon of the impact window and the timeline. |
| Click a bar in the impact window | Focuses that day, scrolls the timeline, unfolds the list. A second click unfocuses. |
| Click a scorecard tile | Cross-filters on that currency: the other tiles dim, the timeline filters down to it alone. A second click removes the filter. |
| Click a day header in the timeline | Unfolds / folds that day. |
| Click a release line (timeline or Event reaction) | Opens the history drawer. |
| Esc | Closes the most recently opened drawer. |
✕ in a drawer | Closes that drawer. |
Cross-check with other Hawkline features
- A release with a strong beat or miss on a timeline row: the history drawer gives you the photograph; to see how that currency is positioned overall, Trend matrix isolates the FX class and gives the composite directional score.
- A currency sitting in RE-ACCEL or WORSENING on the regime tile: FX for the detail of the pairs involved and the decomposition of the forces.
Keep in mind
- These are historical stats, not predictions. Beat Z, Miss Z, momentum and streak summarize what happened over the selected period. A regime change (a central bank, a geopolitical shock) can break the patterns overnight.
- Small N = weight it down. A release with 5 or 10 observations gives an unstable average move. The
n=in the drawer and the totalNon the scorecard are your guardrails. On some recent series (a new release, a central bank changing format),nstays low for a while. - The regime tile needs material. Over a short window with a strict T3 tier, some currencies may not have enough observations to be placed properly. Widen to 2Y or to T2+ if a point looks wrong.