Iran closes its airspace by …?
50.5%
VOL 24H$3.1M
Δ 24H+13.5pp
MARKETS2
OI—
TOP MOVEIran closes its airspace by May 31?+13.5pp
HAWKLINE VISION·2026-04-04 14:32:07Z·27.00°N · 056.00°E·IRAN / DÉTROIT D'ORMUZ
QUESTION 01
QUE SEPASSE-T-ILMAINTENANT ?
─DAILY BRIEFINGTIME: 0800 · 8 EVENTS─
Geopolitical
HIGH
RUSSIA-UKRAINE STRIKES + GRID OUTAGES SUSTAINED
GDELTelevated
MEDIUM
CHINA-TAIWAN TENSION SCORE DRIFTING UP
GDELTrising
Military
CRITICAL
DUAL-CSG POSTURE SUSTAINED IN CENTCOM
LINCOLN + FORD
Markets
HIGH
GOLD AT ATH · COT CROWDING EXTREME
GOLDATHcrowded
MEDIUM
EQUITIES AT RECORDS · AI CAPEX ABSORBS WAR DRAG
SPX7,150+
Economic
HIGH
Q1 GDP NOWCAST PRINTING SUB-2%
ATL FED1.4%
Prediction Markets
CRITICAL
POWELL-EXIT CONTRACT TRADING ELEVATED
PROB77%HV +8pp
Disruptions
MEDIUM
SUDAN DISPLACEMENT EXCEEDS 13M
IDP13.4M
QUESTION 02
QUEDOIS-JEFAIRE ?
─THESIS · NASDAQ 100HORIZON 14D · CONF 0.55 · MEDIUM─
Will the Nasdaq rally 2.5% in the next 2 weeks?
MARKETHAWKLINE
42.0%62.0%
NASDAQ COT at z=−1.20 (10th-percentile crowded short) meets an accelerating AI-capex headline cycle — DeepSeek V4, Cohere-Aleph $20B, Vast Data, TSMC record. Index showed intraday resilience through Apr 23's Dow −550 Iran shock. A 14-day +2.5% from $27,276 puts us at $27,958 — inside the consolidation range and well within realized vol. Binding risk is the dense Apr 29-30 central-bank cluster.
REALIZED+3.57%VERDICTTARGET MET
- iran30▲▲
- ceasefire27▲▲
- israel24▲▲
- nuclear22▲▲
- houthis19▲▲
- brent17▲▲
- yemen16▲▲
- vix15▲▲
- hezbollah14▲
- refinery13▲
- gold12▲
- sudan11▲
- darfur9▲
- yields9▲
- stocks8▲▲
- taiwan8▲
- gps-jam8▲
- fed7─
- oil6▲▲
- nfp6─
- luhansk6─
- inflation5▲▲
- navarea5─
- trump4▲
- maluku4─
- hormuz3─
10+ FLUX DE SIGNAUX.UNE SEULE SURFACE.
MONITEUR EN DIRECT/monitor
Carte du monde en direct. Zones géopolitiques, calques de signaux, anomalies — chaque flux à la seconde.
INITIALIZING DECK.GL
ALL STREAMS ENGAGED
THE FRAME BEFORE THE DAY BEGINS
News clusters pulse, convergence zones radiate, prediction markets light up, trade corridors arc across the globe — every stream resolving onto one surface. Switch projection, rewind snapshot date, layer reference infrastructure on top.
NEWSZONESPREDICTIONTRADEREFERENCE
CRITICALHIGHMEDIUMPOLYMARKETTRADE
0+ FLUX DE SIGNAUX·0+ INDICATEURS MACRO·0 CLUSTERS D'ACTU / 6H·0 ANOMALIES DÉTECTÉES·0J RÉFÉRENCE
flux secondairesvols militaires · navires AIS · sismique · incendies · IOC cyber · brouillage GPS · alertes NAVAREA · déplacements · anomalies climatiques
SIGNAUX.SCORES. POSITIONS.
VUES INTEL/intel
5+ terminaux, un seul espace de travail — chaque signal, dans le format où on l'utilise vraiment.
▸/INTEL/TREND·30+ actifs · 6 catégories de facteurs · momentum score
Ce qui tend. Ce qui s'essouffle. Ce qui va se retourner — toutes les classes d'actifs sur un seul écran.
2026-05-05
REGIME
BALANCED
risk-on avg +11.7 n=12risk-off avg +5.3 n=4
FX+0.211↑11↓/28
METALS+2.91↑1↓/3
COMMODITY+9.72↑1↓/3
INDEX+8.05↑2↓/7
BOND+12.41↑0↓/1
CRYPTO+27.72↑0↓/2
TOP BULL
CADCHF+39.4▼BULLISH
AUDCHF+35.7─BULLISH
BTC+33.3▲BULLISH
TOP BEAR
USDCAD-39.2─BEARISH
EURCAD-28.8─BEARISH
EURAUD-28.5─BEARISH
ASSETOVERALLVERDICT30DMOMENTUMMACROPOSRISKFLOW
FXAUDCHFAUD/CHF
+35.7
BULLISH
—-0.2P49
+4.2-1.3
+67.5—
-15.5—
+51.7+0.8
CRYBTCBitcoin
+33.3
BULLISH
▲+1.8P100
+5.8-1.0
+74.0—
-29.5+9.2
+53.6+0.1
INDNIKKEI225Nikkei 225
+31.4
BULLISH
▼-0.6P91
+35.5-2.5
N/A
-6.2—
+47.6+0.2
FXAUDUSDAUD/USD
+28.7
BULLISH
▲+0.8P62
+0.3+0.9
+54.6—
-12.9—
+44.6+1.4
METCOPPERCopper
+27.1
BULLISH
—-0.2P82
+3.9-1.1
+67.8—
-13.3—
+31.8+0.1
INDSP500S&P 500
+24.4
BULLISH
—-0.1P86
+1.6-0.7
+23.2—
-17.3—
+59.8+0.1
CRYETHEthereum
+22.1
BULLISH
▲+1.9P89
+5.8-1.0
+41.6—
-23.5+9.6
+37.1+0.1
COMWTIWTI Crude Oil
+13.6
NEUTRAL
—-0.3P74
+30.9-0.8
+5.4—
-46.7—
+29.0-0.0
BNDBUNDGerman Bund
+12.4
NEUTRAL
▼-1.9P55
+31.9-3.0
N/A
+6.9—
-46.8+0.1
FXEURUSDEUR/USD
+4.0
NEUTRAL
▲+0.8P66
+8.2-0.3
-56.3—
+6.1—
+24.2+2.8
METGOLDGold (Spot)
-22.7
BEARISH
—-0.2P18
+3.9-1.1
-22.5—
+7.1—
-54.6+0.1
FXEURAUDEUR/AUD
-28.5
BEARISH
—-0.3P52
+3.8+0.1
-60.1—
+7.0—
-43.3-0.9
FXUSDCADUSD/CAD
-39.2
BEARISH
—+0.2P26
-19.9+1.6
-41.7—
-21.8—
-59.3-1.0
▸/INTEL/MACRO·Les événements macro à venir · 8 majors vs historique
Les événements macro à venir, notés contre leur historique et classés par réaction sur les marchés.
T3T2+7D14D30D
FENÊTRE D'IMPACT · 11J166 événements
+18TUE05
+10WED06
+11THU07
+17FRI08
+4MON11
+10TUE12
+15WED13
+25THU14
+5FRI15
+4MON18
+3TUE19
WINDOW166EVENTS · 11D
PEAK DAYMay 1319 EVTS · 6.7
SCORECARDS PAYS8 PAYS · FENÊTRE 1A
USDUnited States83 NEXT
BEAT Z+0.61
MISS Z-0.67
BEAT %44.4%
N1375
MOM-0.02STREAK+1
EVENT REACTIONCrude Oil Inventories+1.00%-2.00%219
GBPUnited Kingdom25 NEXT
AUDAustralia8 NEXT
JPYJapan15 NEXT
▸/INTEL/MARKETS·80+ événements · probabilités en direct fixées par des parieurs en argent réel
Quelles sont les cotes ? Probabilités Polymarket en direct sur chaque événement majeur — géopolitique, macro, élections.
1H4H24H7D
ACTIVITÉ PAR DOMAINE · 24H$29.5M · 80 événements
GEOPOLITICALMACROCRYPTO
GEOPOLITICAL7MO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by …?GEOPOLITICAL7MO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?GEOPOLITICAL9D
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?▸/INTEL/THESES·Trades + positions Polymarket · entrée, probabilité, verdict
Chaque pari directionnel ouvert — trades sur instruments et positions sur Polymarket.
─THESIS · NASDAQ 100HORIZON 14D · CONF 0.55 · MEDIUM─
Will the Nasdaq rally 2.5% in the next 2 weeks?
NASDAQ COT at z=−1.20 (10th-percentile crowded short) meets an accelerating AI-capex headline cycle — DeepSeek V4, Cohere-Aleph $20B, Vast Data, TSMC record. Index showed intraday resilience through Apr 23's Dow −550 Iran shock. A 14-day +2.5% from $27,276 puts us at $27,958 — inside the consolidation range and well within realized vol. Binding risk is the dense Apr 29-30 central-bank cluster.
MARKETHAWKLINE
42.0%62.0%
DIRECTION:LONGEXPECTED:+2.50% / 14dEDGE:+20ppCOUNTRY:
ENTRY$27,276.04
LAST$28,250.76
1D+2.3%
7D+4.2%
30D+17.7%
σ20+16.8%
ATR14+1.0%
KEY DRIVERS
COT short_build unwind (Apr 28 release)
AI-capex headline cadence (DeepSeek, TSMC, SK Hynix)
Q1 earnings: AI-winner vs Iran-exposed split
FOMC hawkish-hold framing
WATCH SIGNALS
NASDAQ daily close vs $27,500 / $26,600
Mega-cap Q1 earnings Iran-war references
VIX term structure
COT Apr 28 short_build continuation vs cover
─THESIS 0247CONF 0.60 · MEDIUM · GEOPOLITICS─
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5?
Market is pricing 30.5% odds of a US-Iran sit-down inside the May 1-5 window — but the calendar doesn't support it. Iran's FM is in St. Petersburg on a parallel Russia track, the Witkoff/Kushner Pakistan trip was retracted, and Polymarket's own siblings disagree: 'meeting by Apr 30' prices 9%, 'meeting by May 15' prices 46%. Read together, those imply under 30% odds of a meeting landing specifically inside this five-day window. We hold 10%, well below the headline number.
POLYMARKETHAWKLINE
30.5%10.0%
PROBABILITY:LESS LIKELYDOMAIN:geopoliticsCOUNTRIES:
SUPPORTING4
▲Iranian FM Araghchi met Putin in St. Petersburg — Iran's principal envoy is on a parallel Russia track during the resolution window.news articles · 04-27 15:45
▲Sibling markets 'meeting by Apr 30' price 9% and 'meeting by May 15' price 46%. The gap between them implies less than 30% odds of a meeting landing inside the May 1-5 window.pm term structure · 04-27 20:00
▲The War Zone: 'Prospects dimming on Iran-US deal to open Strait, end war'; Hezbollah rejected Israel-Lebanon direct talks the same day.news articles · 04-27 13:00
▲Iran's three-point counterproposal under WH discussion — no published timeline; Trump met security officials with no readout naming a meeting date.news articles · 04-27 19:00
CONTRADICTING1
▼Trump met security officials on Iran; WH said the proposal is under discussion — surprise late-week call after FOMC could move the needle.news articles · 04-27 17:00
KEY DRIVERS
Surprise principal-level call after FOMC
Araghchi return from Russia and US bilateral acceptance
Oman-hosted format announcement
Trump executive cadence on the meeting venue
Hormuz kinetic incident pushing meeting timing past May 5
WATCH SIGNALS
Confirmed Witkoff/Trump-level call with Iranian principal
Oman announcement of formal mediation hosting
Polymarket 'meeting by May 5' below 20%
Trump Truth Social on a meeting venue
Iranian foreign ministry communique on direct US format
+ENCORE PLUS D'INTEL...
POSITIONS COT
Crowding CFTC, extrêmes percentile, lecture du risque systémique.
79%CROWDING
DIVERGENCE TEMPORELLE
Scan d'anomalies z-score sur 10+ flux en direct.
28DIVERGENCES · 24H
FOREX INDEX
Panier 8 devises, pondération inverse-vol, historique 14J.
AUDPLUS FORTE
DÉCOMPOSITION PAIRES
28 majeures — driver, alignement, indicateur de conflit.
7CONFLITS
THÈSES
Calls directionnels ouverts — entrée, probabilité, verdict.
6OUVERTES
Tous les jours, la réponse à vos 2 plus grandes questions.
─ACCÈS─
— FEATURES
- 01BRIEFING QUOTIDIEN10+ événements classés
- 02THÈSEStrades + positions Polymarket
- 03MATRICE DE TENDANCE30+ actifs · scoring momentum + facteurs
- 04POLYMARKET INTELévénements · probabilités de marché en direct
- 05COT INTELpositionnement + saturation
- 06TABLEAUX MACRO8 majeures + zone EUR
- 07MONITORcarte du monde en direct + zones de convergence
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