Will Iran and Oman announce a Hormuz management agreement by August 31? POLYMARKET 19% entry → 0% close
Closure note Resolved No at the August 31 deadline — the fourth consecutive leg of the ladder to expire without a qualifying instrument, against the 18.5% the market carried at the open. The call was that the binding constraint was never the substance of the arrangement but whether Muscat would declare it, and that held through the one week the position was genuinely at risk: Oman published a joint statement under its own name on August 25 and its foreign minister said a temporary corridor would be announced soon, lifting the leg to 16% on real money and rising open interest. But the statement proposed a phased framework and left the technical negotiation running, which is the prospective-agreement and continuing-talks language the resolution criteria exclude by name, and no Omani declaration of acceptance ever followed it. In the final week the track was overtaken rather than completed: Tehran said implementation of the Oman arrangement depends on Washington, CENTCOM's own clearance of the shipping lanes took the joint mine-clearing project out of the two governments' hands, and the diplomatic channel gave way to a shooting exchange — American strikes on IRGC launchers at Larak Island on August 30, Iranian missiles on US bases in Jordan, fresh Iranian mining and supertankers struck inside the waterway. The leg decayed from 4.5% on August 29 through 0.65% on August 31 and settled at zero.
Will the US announce an end to its naval blockade of Iran by August 15? POLYMARKET 49% entry → 14% close
Closure note Closed the fade at 13.5% against the 49% entry — 35.5 points, well through the 22% fair value. The position was carried through a hard adverse run first: the leg printed 77.5% on August 5 as the ceasefire and mediation trade built, but nothing in that run went near the resolution bar — no official, present and decided announcement was made, enforcement never eased, and Tehran never accepted the Hormuz reopening Washington named as the price. The call was right from the open, and when the repricing came it came as a gap rather than a grind, cutting through the 22% objective inside the August 9 session to an 11.5% print. That break was structural rather than a headline wick, so the objective was deliberately passed over and the position held for the deeper run-through. The next session paid for it: Washington said it is "low-keying it" and will hold the blockade as economic pressure instead of striking, Tehran says it is not negotiating, the entire blockade-end curve reset 8 to 18 points lower, and the August 15 leg held 13.5 to 14.5% with no rebound — another 8.5 points of edge over a close at target. What remains is roughly thirteen points of move against five days of one-way trigger risk on a contract that resolves Yes on a single statement, so the position closes here.
Will the US and Iran sign a final nuclear deal by August 31? POLYMARKET 24% entry → 8% close
Closure note Closed the fade at 7.5%. The leg entered at 23.5% and has converged well below the 11% fair value: the ceasefire collapsed into open war and a reimposed naval blockade of Iranian ports — the antithesis of the signed agreement the market requires — and nothing ever touched the resolution bar. With the bulk of the move banked and only about seven points left to settlement against the tail risk of a surprise announcement, the reward no longer justifies carrying the position to the August 31 deadline.
Will the Fed hold through year-end, or get squeezed into a 2026 cut? POLYMARKET 66% entry → 83% close
Closure note Target met. May payrolls printed 172,000 against an ~88,000 consensus on June 5 and the repricing was immediate: the no-cuts market jumped from the high 60s through the 75% target to 83%, with traders now fully pricing a Fed rate hike by year-end and the 2026-hike market trading above 50%. The thesis needed only the pause to hold; the data pushed the whole distribution hawkish past it. Entered at 66.15%, closed at 83%.
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? POLYMARKET 17% entry → 8% close
Closure note Closed on convergence to the 8% target from the 16.5% open — the full 8.5-point call. The leg fell to 7.0% on July 17 from 9.5% the day before as the US-Iran war deepened, extinguishing the regional-package counter-path that was the only credible route to a formal disarmament clause. Naim Qassem never moved: he called the US-brokered talks a 'dead end' in May, the renewed ceasefire terms 'surrender, defeat and achieving the enemy's goals' in June, and Hezbollah — not a party to the June 26 framework conditioning an Israeli pullback on its disarmament — dismissed it as a recipe for civil war. Eight months of kinetic degradation proved the wrong pressure type to force the formal Secretary-General announcement the resolution requires, exactly as called at open.
Will Iran close its airspace by May 31? POLYMARKET 40% entry → 8% close
Closure note Closed at 7.6%. The May-31 airspace leg converged from the 39.5% entry, decisively through the 15% target. A May 23 notice closing the western section of Tehran's flight region spiked the leg toward certainty intraday but round-tripped within a day — a partial, regional restriction that never cleared the bar of a broad commercial suspension or two of five named hubs going dark, exactly the structural call. With days to the May 31 resolution and no national closure, the boring outcome held: Iran has not shut its airspace once across the war.
Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31? POLYMARKET 22% entry → 8% close
Closure note Target met. The market touched the 8% target at 02:12 UTC on May 11 and printed a 6.5% low the same hour, with the latest mark at 6.5% (down five points on the day on $108K of volume, the flow entirely one-sided — a sustained NO bid with no whale prints). The market repriced from 22% entry to 6.5% over four days. The thesis played out as drafted: Iran's mediated reply via Pakistan did not contain a stockpile-transfer pledge — Trump publicly rejected Iran's proposal as 'totally unacceptable' and called the demands 'excessive', Iran said the demands themselves were excessive and routed its response through Pakistan with 'don't prolong talks' framing, Iran was reported to offer the stockpile abroad and then denied it within hours, Khamenei briefed the military chief on 'new guiding measures', and Netanyahu said 'the war on Iran is not over' with the stockpile-must-be-removed maximalist line still in play. The cross-market hierarchy compressed in lockstep: 'Iran agrees to end enrichment by May 31' at 7.5%, operational counterpart 'US obtains Iranian uranium by May 31' at 5.5%, June-30 stockpile variant 18.5%, peace-deal-by-May-31 20.5%.